Trump’s Truck Tariffs Are Coming. Here’s Who Wins and Loses.

Weakening truck markets have weighed on shares of Paccar. Coming into Friday trading, Paccar stock was down about 8% this year. (Courtesy PACCAR)

Key Points

• President Trump announced a 25% tariff on foreign-made heavy-duty trucks, effective October 1, 2025, citing national security.
• Paccar’s stock rose following the tariff announcement, while Daimler stock fell and Volvo stock gained.
• Paccar anticipates 245,000 heavy-duty truck sales in the U.S. and Canada for 2025, a decrease from 260,000 in 2024.

Shares of heavy-duty truck maker Paccar rose Friday after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on foreign-made heavy-duty trucks on Thursday.

“In order to protect our Great Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturers from unfair outside competition, I will be imposing, as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff on all Heavy (Big!) Trucks made in other parts of the World,” the president said on Truth Social. “Therefore, our Great Large Truck Company Manufacturers, such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks, and others will be protected.”

The tariffs are a matter of “national security,” he added.

Paccar makes Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks. Germany’s Daimler Truck makes Freightliner trucks. Sweden’s Volvo makes Mack trucks. Mack and Freightliner trucks are manufactured in the U.S. Daimler also has some manufacturing capacity in Mexico.

Tariffs can mean higher prices and more market share for domestic producers. Paccar stock gained 5.2%, closing at $100.50, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

Daimler stock fell 1.8% in overseas trading. Volvo stock gained 3.41%. For now, the market believes that Paccar and Volvo will be picking up share from Daimler.

Coming into Friday trading, Paccar stock was down 8% this year and down 2% over the past 12 months.

Weaker truck markets are the best explanation for the declines. Paccar expects about 245,000 heavy-duty trucks to be sold, industrywide, in the U.S. and Canada this year. That’s down from about 260,000 in 2024. What’s more, Paccar’s initial market projections for 2025 were closer to 265,000.

Wall Street projects 2025 sales of about $27 billion, according to FactSet, down from almost $32 billion generated in 2024. Sales in 2026 are expected to recover to about $29 billion.

Along with any impact on a 2026 recovery, investors will have to work out what heavy-duty truck tariffs mean for Paccar’s bottom line.

Paccar stock trades for about 15 times estimated 2026 earnings, up from an average of about 12 times over the past few years. Cyclical companies, including heavy-duty truck makers, however, typically trade for higher multiples when earnings are declining and lower multiples when earnings are at or near peak levels.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com