What’s Next for Trump and Ukraine? A Call to Putin and Specific Security Guarantees

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky returned to the Oval Office on Monday. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Figuring out “who will do what” in terms of security guarantees for Ukraine to help bring about a lasting peace deal with Russia is on the top of the agenda among the European leaders, President Donald Trump, and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the meeting at the White House Monday afternoon.

“We’re working on the security guarantees,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She referred to them as being “Article 5 like,” a nod to the protections offered by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stipulating that an attack against one member is an attack against all.

That doesn’t mean that Ukraine would be offered membership in the alliance, something Trump said Sunday is off the table but that Ukraine has sought. Instead it involves a “credible Ukrainian army,” France’s President Emmanuel Macron said. Backing from Europe and the U.S. will be discussed as well.

Several leaders in attendance, including Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also made an appeal for a cease-fire or truce before a formal peace agreement. Trump has played down the likelihood of that since meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

Trump reiterated his statement from earlier Monday that he will be calling Putin later in the day to try to set up a trilateral meeting with Zelensky in the coming days. “We’re going to set that up today after this meeting” he said.

Zelensky Ready to Talk to Putin

Zelensky said he is ready for a trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, which would be the next step in ending the war in Ukraine.

“We’re going to have a lasting peace. I hope it’s going to be immediately,” Trump said as the two men sat together in the Oval Office Monday.

He added that he was having a call with Putin “right after” he meets with Zelensky and European leaders today to discuss a trilateral meeting.

Zelensky, who was dressed in a black suit, started the meeting by thanking Trump for the invitation and his efforts to end the war.

Trump, for his part, said, “The war is going to end. This gentleman wants it to end. Vladimir Putin wants it to end.”

He added that the U.S. will give Ukraine “very good protection, very good security,” while declining to say if he would agree to any specific security guarantees. He also said that the U.S. is selling weapons to Ukraine, not giving them away, which Zelensky affirmed.

The high-stakes meeting could have broad repercussions, not only for a potential peace deal ending the war in Ukraine, but also for everything from the stock market to oil prices.

Any progress could help lift U.S. stock indexes, which have already seen numerous highs in 2025. Stalled talks—or worse, another awkward Oval Office encounter like the one that unfolded last time Zelensky visited the White House back in February—could put investors on edge.

Zelensky brought an entourage including leaders from the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Finland, who joined to help smooth the talks.

It remains unclear how close any peace agreement might be. After meeting Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday night that Ukraine would need to commit to not getting back Crimea and accepting not being part of the NATO.

Zelensky probably won’t be happy with those terms. “Putin’s high bar for a peace deal may scupper hopes for an end to the conflict, but with more details emerging about what land could be ceded or retained in Eastern Ukraine, there does seem be more substance to the talks,” Hargreaves Lansdown’s head of money and markets Susannah Streeter said on Monday.

Trump appears confident that he can broker a peace deal, writing Monday that the current “mess” wouldn’t have happened if he had been president. “I know exactly what I’m doing, and I don’t need the advice of people who have been working on all of these conflicts for years, and were never able to do a thing to stop them,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Keep an Eye on Oil Prices

Oil prices are in focus because the West may lift some or all of its sanctions on Russian crude if this week’s talks lead to a peace deal.

The Brent international benchmark rose 0.18% to $65.97 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate U.S. prices were up 0.24% to $62.12 a barrel by midday.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Source: FactSetAs of Aug. 20, 4:10 p.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1BrentWTIAug. 12Aug. 2061626364656667$68

The talks aren’t the only thing affecting oil prices. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro slammed India for its purchases of Russian crude in a Financial Times op-ed. Navarro said New Delhi was acting as a “global clearinghouse for Russian oil,” describing how Russian crude is still making its way to global markets through India, though at capped prices.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com, George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com and Brian Swint at brian.swint@barrons.com