Trump’s AI Ambitions Need Tariff Certainty. It’s Not Coming.

Trump wants the U.S. to be a “superpower in artificial intelligence.” (AFP via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump’s effort to ensure the U.S. remains the world leader in artificial intelligence, in terms of both innovation and infrastructure, could be complicated by his focus on tariffs in order to achieve it.

The president unveiled $92 billion in AI investments during a Tuesday event in Pennsylvania, which included some of the biggest names in corporate America, and plans to deliver a major address on his ambitions for the sector next week.

Earlier this year, he also unveiled plans for a $100 billion joint venture among Oracle , OpenAI, and Japan’s SoftBank to build AI data centers and rescinded tech export restrictions put in place during the final months of the Biden administration.

However, he also launched an investigation into the semiconductor sector in April, under rules that would allow him to place tariffs on imports under the guise of national security concerns. He hinted to reporters last night that those levies could begin as soon as Aug. 1, but also suggested they would start at a low level in order to allow for reshoring.

However, the complicated matrix of tariffs, exemptions, moving deadlines and company-specific carve-outs is starting to blunt investment plans in the sector, according to ASML Holding CEO Christophe Fouquet.

ASML, based in the Netherlands, is the world’s only maker of EUV lithography machines, a crucial component of large-scale chip design used by companies such as Nvidia and Apple .

The group has been growing booking for its EUV machines, as well as its other design tools, every year since 2012. But it can’t guarantee an advance in 2026 as a result of tariff uncertainty.

“Customers are watching that landscape,” ASML’s finance chief Roger Dassen told reporters on Wednesday. “As soon as that becomes clearer, then also their investment plans will become clearer.”

That is not to suggest that AI investments are poised for a damaging slowdown.

Nvidia just won a reprieve for the sale of its H20 chips, a slimmed-down version of the company’s powerful Blackwell line, to customers in China. Also, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing , the world’s biggest chip contractor, forecast 20% revenue growth for this year late last month.

On a global level, a recent study from McKinsey forecasts around $5.2 trillion in capital spending over the next five years will be required to meet AI-processing demand.

“With both the U.S. and China racing to take the lead in the AI arms race, tech conglomerates are investing significantly into gaining more share within this fourth Industrial Revolution,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

But the investment needed to develop the next generation of AI data centers, and the energy required to power them, requires much greater tariff clarity.

Copper, a key component in powering networks, cooling systems and circuit boards, could be subject to a 50% tariff based on Trump administration statements. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to stiff levies as well.

Tariffs on technologies such as ASML’s EUV systems, which could be subject to a “foreign monopoly exposure” levy, will slow the flow of product needed for buildouts.

Levies on the graphics processing units (GPUs), central processing units (CPUs), and printed circuit assemblies (PCAs) also raise the cost of training and developing AI models.

Reva Goujon, a director at research provider Rhodium Group and Ben Reynolds, a research analyst with Rhodium’s China corporate advisory team, suggest that increase could be significant.

Putting 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips into a data center at current prices would cost between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, the pair estimated. A 25% tariff could add $750 million.

“We believe that America’s destiny is to dominate every industry and be the first in every technology, and that includes being the world’s number-one superpower in artificial intelligence,” Trump said yesterday during his remarks in Pennsylvania.

Tariffs, however, might make that destiny harder to achieve.

Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com