Trump’s Trade Victories Could Be Hollow. Why Markets Must Be Wary of China Talks.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Sometimes the rhetoric obscures the most important detail—and that seems to be the case for the latest raft of trade deals. President Donald Trump’s agreements with Japan and the European Union promise a huge investment boost but might not deliver the amounts suggested. That has a bearing on the China trade talks, making a lasting agreement even trickier.

A foreign spending splurge looks like a boon for American manufacturers and exporters—Japan promised $550 billion of investments in the U.S., only for the EU to go bigger with a $750 billion commitment to energy purchases and a $600 billion investment pledge. Liquefied natural gas players such as Cheniere Energy and Venture Global were celebrating.

But the details are murky. Japanese ministers said the vast majority of Tokyo’s commitment is in loans. European officials say energy purchases aren’t legally binding and depend on private company decisions. With no detailed texts of the agreements yet available, there’s plenty of room for interpretation.

And so to China talks, currently under way in Sweden, with the tariff truce set to be extended another 90 days beyond the Aug. 12 deadline. Will we see another big headline investment figure? If so, treat it with caution—Beijing didn’t fulfill the $200 billion promise it made in Trump’s first term.

That might mean a tougher line from the White House, such as a much higher baseline tariff. Analysts at Lazard assume an eventual 40% levy on Chinese goods. That would be hefty, but this time the Trump administration has leverage with Nvidia’s processors—quite literally a key bargaining chip—which China’s tech companies want desperately.

With other countries buying into Trump’s trade vision, China’s President Xi Jinping might decide not falling behind in AI is worth some tariff pain. But keep an eye out for the caveats and footnotes—the devil is in the detail.

—Adam Clark

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Trump Trade Deals Are Following an Emerging Pattern

The U.S.-European Union trade deal reaffirms an emerging pattern: The administration is aiming not just for tariffs but for purchase commitments and investment pledges, some of which are creating confusion. It draws comparisons to the Phase One trade deal with China reached during President Donald Trump’s first term.

• Analysts expect the EU’s pledge to invest $600 billion in America to go the way of the agricultural purchases China promised and never delivered on. Trump touted a similarly large $550 billion pledge by Japan. It seems larger trading partners are using them to avert higher tariffs.
• Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, nonresident senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the EU deal wasn’t just about trade, either. It also helps the bloc’s efforts to keep Trump engaged on national security issues, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• But he is also skeptical about the investment commitments. While he expects higher tariffs to increase investment in the U.S., it is more likely to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, not close to that $600 billion figure.
• Rachel Ziemba, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, was skeptical of the EU’s commitment to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy by 2028, which is far above European demand. The U.S. sold $78 billion in fossil fuels to the EU last year.

What’s Next: Kirkegaard sees an elevated risk that smaller countries end up with higher tariffs. As for Canada and Mexico, analysts see both countries ending up with similar rates as Japan and the EU for the goods that aren’t covered by their existing agreement with the U.S.

— Reshma Kapadia and Liz Moyer

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Google Awaits Judge’s Order on Remedy for Search Business

Alphabet has been awaiting word on what remedies a federal judge will order Google to adopt in general search services and general text advertising after the 2024 ruling that established the tech giant maintained a monopoly in those areas. Apple investors should be paying attention, too.

• The judge’s ruling could come by Aug. 8, according to JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth. One possible remedy would be the banning of exclusive search engine agreements with companies such as Apple, which Google currently pays. It is the default search engine on all of Apple’s devices.
• Google has argued in the past that companies should be able to arrange deals with whatever search engine they think is best for their users. But Anmuth sees a potential compromise where Google can pay Apple but only for consumers who pick Google as their default search engine.
• The Justice Department suggested an array of remedies, including breaking up the company by forcing Google to sell its Chrome web browser. They told the judge in arguments this spring that a radical shake up was needed to protect competition.
• The outcome is important to Apple. Anmuth believes the company could lose about $12.5 billion in revenue in addition to the profit it currently receives from Google, which could shave about 10% off earnings.

What’s Next: Google has argued that rapidly advancing artificial intelligence technology is already reshaping the search business, and because of that only minor remedies are needed. The government contends that AI’s rise alone won’t rein in Google’s power.

— Angela Palumbo

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Blackstone Executive Among 4 Killed in NYC Office Shooting

A gunman opened fire in a busy New York office building on Monday, killing three people before turning the gun on himself. The city’s Mayor Eric Adams called it “another senseless act of gun violence.”

• Among the victims were an executive at Blackstone, the global asset manager, and an employee of the National Football League. Both firms have offices in the building on Park Avenue, as does KPMG, the accounting company, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• A New York City police officer was also killed, and a fifth person was shot and remained in critical condition. Other Blackstone employees are in the hospital for treatment.
• The gunman drove across the country over the past few days and has a history of mental illness, according to the Journal citing police. He started shooting in the lobby and went to the offices of Rudin Management, a real estate firm, where he killed another person and then fatally shot himself in the chest.

What’s Next: While police couldn’t yet determine a motive for Monday’s killing, the event is likely to raise concern about violence against corporate executives. The spree took place just a few blocks from where UnitedHealthcare executive Brian Thompson was shot dead last year.

— Brian Swint

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Figma Raises Price Range as Hopes Grow for More IPOs

Design software maker Figma makes its stock market debut this week, the latest so-called unicorn private company to test Wall Street’s appetite for initial public offerings in a red-hot market. One possible good sign: it raised its targeted IPO price, which could sway other companies waiting in the wings.

• At the top of its newly proposed $30-to-$32 a share offering, Figma’s valuation would reach about $19 billion —a bit below the $20 billion Adobe offered for it in a merger they abandoned in 2023. Figma plans to raise nearly $1.2 billion by selling 36.9 million shares.
• The new price range is up from the originally proposed $25 to $28 a share. For Adobe, a strong IPO by Figma would be yet another headache. The Barron’s stock pick has stumbled badly on worries that it is missing the mark on artificial intelligence.
• Figma’s IPO could encourage others after a slow start to 2025. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria says companies that have been waiting include AI customer-service provider Genesys Cloud Services, design software maker Canva Pty, and data-analytics company Databricks.
• None of the three companies have formally filed to go public yet, though Genesys confidentially filed IPO paperwork last October. A challenge for the software makers is to prove how they are using AI to boost their businesses rather than be hurt by it, Luria said.

What’s Next: Firefly Aerospace, maker of the Blue Ghost lunar lander, has separately filed to offer 16.2 million shares at $35 to $39 each, which would raise about $631.8 million. At the top of its range, the space company’s valuation would reach $5.5 billion.

— Paul R. La Monica and Liz Moyer

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Boeing Faces Another Potentially Damaging Worker Strike

About 3,200 Boeing workers at facilities near St. Louis rejected a contract offer, raising the potential for another damaging labor strike for the plane maker just days from now. The news comes just as Boeing is slated to report progress on narrowing its quarterly loss and on revenue growth.

• The rejected offer for workers making F-15 and F-18 fighter jets, among other things, included 40% potential average wage growth over the life of the contract, according to Boeing. The average annual wage could have reached $102,600 from $75,000. It also had a $5,000 ratification bonus.
• Boeing’s defense unit employs more than 18,000 workers in total. Sales in 2024 totaled almost $24 billion, but the segment lost $5.4 billion in operating profit. Money-losing fixed-price contracts have weighed on results.
• Last September, 33,000 Boeing workers that make 737 and 777 jets in the Pacific Northwest went on strike, shutting down production for more than seven weeks. It took three votes and four offers to reach an agreement on a new contract.
• Boeing didn’t respond to a request for comment, but said on its website that it was disappointed the workers voted down the contract. “We’ve activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike,” it said. “No talks are scheduled with the union.”

What’s Next: Investors should also watch labor relations at other companies. Woodward, which makes components for aircraft and industrial engines, has a labor contract covering 800 employees, about 9% of its workforce, expiring in September 2025, noted Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.

— Al Root

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner