TSMC Stock Rises Despite Sales Growth Slowdown. Why the AI Trade Is Alive and Well.

Taiwan Semi reported its slowest rate of monthly sales growth in more than 18 months. (AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• TSMC’s October revenue grew 17% year-over-year, its slowest annual growth rate since February 2024, despite reaching a new monthly record.
• TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to the mid-30% to 40% range, driven by AI-related chip revenue expected to double.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly requested a 50% increase in TSMC’s 3-nanometer wafer production, indicating strong AI demand.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing just reported its slowest rate of monthly sales growth in more than 18 months. But that doesn’t mean the artificial-intelligence trade is coming to an end.

TSMC reported October revenue of 367.47 billion New Taiwan dollars ($11.86 billion). While that’s a new monthly record for the Taiwanese chip manufacturer, the 17% growth from the same month last year is the slowest pace of annual growth TSMC has registered since February 2024.

That’s likely to fuel speculation about whether the boom in demand for AI hardware is slowing. TSMC is the main supplier of chips to Nvidia —the leader of semiconductors used for AI applications. TSMC also makes the core processors inside Apple iPhones, Qualcomm mobile chipsets, and processors made by Advanced Micro Devices .

But one month’s figures shouldn’t cause panic, with the numbers potentially affected by order timing. TSMC doesn’t issue commentary alongside its monthly report.

The company recently raised its guidance for revenue growth this year to the middle range of 30%-40%, from about 30% in U.S. dollar terms. The main driver of that growth is AI-related chip revenue, which TSMC has previously said it expects to double in 2025 and grow at a mid-40% annual rate for the next five years.

The single most important customer for TSMC in the AI sector is Nvidia and the signs are of healthy demand from the chip maker. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan over the weekend. Local Taiwanese media reported that Nvidia’s orders could require TSMC to boost production of its 3-nanometer wafers—the base material for semiconductors—at sites in Taiwan by as much as 50% a month.

TSMC Chief Executive C.C. Wei told reporters that Huang had asked for more wafer production but the exact number was confidential, Reuters reported.

Shareholders in TSMC still look to be confident. Its American depositary receipts were up 3.6% in morning trading, set to add to a 45% gain this year so far through Friday’s close.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com