United Airlines Stock Is Flying. Its Earnings Were Full of Good Signs.

United Airlines stock has jumped 140% since its April lows, heading into second-quarter earnings. (Getty Images)

United Airlines stock soared more than 5% at the open Thursday after its earnings provided more reasons to be positive on the airline sector’s for the remainder of the year.

United beat expectations in the second quarter and—significantly—noted that demand has accelerated so far in July, citing “less geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.”

The airline said it has seen a jump in demand of six percentage points since early July and a double-digit acceleration in business demand, compared with the second quarter.

The shares rose 6% to $93.72 in early trading, after rising 2.4% Wednesday. The stock has now jumped 16% since Delta Air Lines reported earnings last week.

For all the encouraging signs, United did technically cut its guidance.

It updated its full-year profit guidance to a range between $9 and $11 a share—compared with Wall Street’s consensus of $10.11, according to FactSet data. That compares with the two guidance ranges it offered in April: of $11.50 to $13.50 a share in a “stable environment,” and $7 to $9 a share in a recessionary environment.

The shares initially fell after-hours trading and in the early premarket, but that seemed harsh. The recession scenario is off the table, the uncertainty that hammered the sector earlier this year is clearing, and demand seems to be accelerating.

“We view United’s results and commentary positively and as further evidence of the ongoing divergence between full-service carriers and low-cost carriers,” TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald said.

“The shares traded lower after hours, but we would be buyers,” he added. Fitzgerald has a Buy rating on the stock with a $101 price target, implying 14% upside to Wednesday’s closing price.

The carrier reported second-quarter earnings of $3.87 a share, beating the $3.81 a share analysts expected, and beat the midrange of the airline’s previous guidance of $3.25 to $4.25 a share.

Airline stocks surged last week after Delta Air Lines injected some much-needed confidence into the industry with its second-quarter earnings. The carrier restored its full-year guidance after withdrawing its outlook in April just days after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on countries around the world.

Like Delta’s report of robust premium and international travel, United said its premium cabin revenue grew 5.6% from a year ago, while basic economy increased 1.7%. Cargo revenue rose 3.8% from last year, while loyalty revenue jumped 8.7%.

United’s net income of $973 million was down 26% from the year-ago quarter, while total operating revenue of $15.2 billion increased 1.7%.

Capacity increased 5.9% compared with the second quarter of 2024, but total revenue per seat-mile decreased 4% and cost per seat-mile increased 0.6% from the year-ago quarter.

“Our second-quarter performance was more proof that the United Next strategy is working,” United CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement, crediting employees for “navigating through a volatile macroeconomic period” while growing earnings in the first half of 2025.

“United saw a positive shift in demand beginning in early July, and, like 2024, anticipates another inflection in industry supply in mid-August. The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year.”

While other carriers withdrew their guidance in April amid uncertainty over tariffs and the economy, United took the unusual step of issuing two separate outlooks for full-year earnings.

Delta’s restored guidance last week was also significantly lower than the outlook it withdrew back in April.

Lower guidance shouldn’t automatically mean pressure for United’s stock, though. The shares are down around 8.9% in 2025, which is proving to be a turbulent year for the sector. The stock has jumped more than 130% from its early April lows, but Wall Street is bullish—88% of analysts covering the shares have a Buy rating with an average price target of $101.75, implying a 15% jump from Monday’s closing price.

United said its second-quarter on-time departures and seat-cancellation rate were its best postpandemic scores for a second quarter. In June, United said it posted a better on-time arrival rate at Newark Liberty International Airport than all other major airlines at LaGuardia International Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport.

United executives will discuss second-quarter 2025 financial results at a conference call at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com