U.S. May Seize More Oil Tankers Following Venezuela Operation, Analysts Say

President Donald Trump speaks at the White House on Dec. 10. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The U.S. seizure of an oil tanker off Venezuela escalates the tensions between the two countries and makes Venezuela’s weakened energy sector an even more potent weapon the U.S. can use against the Maduro regime.

President Donald Trump has said Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s “days are numbered” amid a military campaign targeting drug traffickers.

But the administration hasn’t said it is seeking control of the country’s vast oil reserves—the largest in the world—despite claims otherwise by Maduro and his allies.

As the White House turns up the pressure, more seizures of tankers are expected, and that could help the Trump administration achieve a direct hit on the country’s finances.

“I would expect [more] because it diminishes the amount of money the regime can make to sustain itself and the money it has to pay to the military to keep it happy and loyal,” said Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The administration’s tactics may mean less oil on the market. Iran and Russia are also under energy sanctions. Shippers hauling crude from those places may worry that the U.S. could seize their tankers, too.

The price of a barrel of crude rose $0.21, or nearly a third of a percent, on Wednesday after news of the seizure.

More systematic seizures would “significantly impact the tankers that would be willing to go to Venezuela, and it would force them to give massive discounts,” said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University.

That could hurt an economy already dependent on discounted oil. Energy “is more than 90% of Venezuelan exports and hard currency and more than 50% of government revenue,” said Monaldi.

At its peak, Venezuela produced more than three million barrels a day. It is now capable of just about a third of that. Its socialist governments have underinvested and allowed energy infrastructure to decay over the past two decades.

Exports averaged just about 750,000 barrels a day this year, according to energy consultant Kpler.

Removing more Venezuelan barrels wouldn’t make much of a dent on global oil supply. The industry expects an oil surplus of somewhere between one and three million barrels a day next year.

“It isn’t a material amount of supply. The market has gotten used to that,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. “If they ever get reopened, it is more impactful to the downside.”

China is the biggest buyer of Venezuela’s crude. According to Kpler, the ship that was seized was the Skipper*,* a supertanker holding more than a million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude.

Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a post on X that the tanker had been sanctioned for multiple years “due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also connected the tanker to terrorism at a press briefing Thursday.

“We’re not going to watch sanctioned vessels sail the seas with black-market oil, the proceeds of which will fuel narco-terrorism of rogue and illegitimate regimes around the world,” Leavitt said.

Trump on Wednesday said the U.S. would likely keep the ship’s oil. The administration’s broader steps in Venezuela are unclear, however.

The U.S. has built up a large fleet of warships in the Caribbean. The administration has come under congressional scrutiny for attacks on small boats off the Venezuela coast that the Pentagon alleges are used by drug cartels. Trump hasn’t ruled out a ground force in Venezuela, and the president had recently declared that Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed.

John Feeley, former U.S. ambassador to Panama, said there’s a scenario where the administration could launch missiles into the epicenter of drug-cartel operations but not send in troops to eliminate Maduro. In that event, the president could declare victory over the drug cartels but then open the door to new development in the oil industry.

An attack on land would involve the U.S. directly in Venezuela’s domestic politics. Maduro has firm control but is highly unpopular. “I think if they strike targets on land, there’s no way they would accept Maduro not leaving,” said Hernandez-Roy.

It is unclear the opposition could step in immediately and take over were Maduro to exit. Whoever took over would have a challenge in attempting to restore the oil sector.

“There is no recovery of Venezuela without recovery of the oil industry,” said Monaldi. That could cost tens of billions of dollars.

But Venezuelan industry could grow substantially. Oil companies “could double production if they could get back in there and put new technology to work,” Monaldi said.

Oil production could go as high as five or six million barrels a day, he said.

Write to editors@barrons.com.