Intel’s Turnaround Earns Our 1st ‘Chart of the Week’ Spotlight

The weekly chart in particular shows clear signs of improvement after a strong rally.

Intel headquarters in Santa Clara, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

For our inaugural Chart of the Week, we turn to Intel, one of the market’s most polarizing stories but one finally beginning to reflect turnaround efforts.

After years of choppy trading and underperformance, the stock is carving out a technical structure that speaks to a meaningful shift in momentum. That makes Intel an especially fitting place to begin this series: a legacy name showing signs of renewal just as investors start to reassess what leadership in U.S. semiconductors might look like.

Intel, a top five holding in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, now also carries the backing of the U.S. government through a 9.9% equity stake announced in August. This arrangement may not sit comfortably with market purists, but the recent price action speaks for itself. The company has also secured investments from Nvidia and SoftBank to the tune of $5 and $2 billion, respectively, in recent months. Intel is building a firmer base and showing improving relative strength. Its constructive move higher, up an eye-catching 118% year to date (not a typo) easily outpaces the SMH’s 50% gain. Over the past three months, Intel has surged more than 80%, besting Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Nvidia, which have risen 34%, 25%, and 5% respectively.

This is the first in a weekly series. Future editions will be available for Barron’s Investor Circle members exclusively.

Intel’s Weekly Chart: Cup-with-Handle

One of the main reasons Intel drew my attention was its improving look on the long term weekly chart. Longer duration time frames often provide greater conviction, and their breakout signals tend to be more reliable. This week, the stock is pushing above a nearly two-year cup-with-handle pivot at $42.58. Round-number theory played a role in the base’s construction, with repeated rejections at the $50 level in the past week of 2023 and again in January 2024. A pair of doji candles in November 2023 were followed by another in January before a harsh bearish engulfing pattern sealed the stock’s fate and ushered in a prolonged decline toward the $20 area. That level ultimately held as the bottom of the pattern from August 2024 through August 2025, until the right side of the cup accelerated sharply higher.

Intel’s weekly chart shows an attempt at a breakout above a cup-with-handle pattern.

From here, I believe the stock can advance toward $64 in the second half of 2026, implying roughly 50% upside from current levels. I remain bullish as long as Intel holds above $36.50.

Intel was trading around $41 Thursday, down about 6% from the open on news it would retain its NEX networking division after a strategic review.

Intel’s Monthly Chart: Improving Structure

For a name like Intel, the monthly chart is indispensable. While daily and weekly time frames capture tactical swings, the monthly view reveals the structural story. It smooths out the noise and highlights the true character of the stock. For Intel in particular, the monthly chart frames its prolonged decline, the depth of its base-building process, and the early signs of a potential long-term trend reversal.

Intel’s monthly chart shows a very powerful run to the very round $50 number.

This month, the stock is in line for its first five-month winning streak since March 2021. The streak began in August with a bullish engulfing candle and occurred just after back to back bullish morning stars were completed in February and June. It is quickly building the right side of a double bottom base which started with a bearish engulfing candle in April 2021. Bulls should have been on alert as it traded into a prior bearish engulfing candle in February 2020. For longer term investors, this could be headed toward $80 by the end of 2027, corresponding to a gain of 90% from current levels.

Many investors remain indifferent to Intel and its prospects. In my view, this suggests ample amounts of skepticism where its turnaround story is concerned. That makes for a lot of potential FOMO—and rally-chasing—should the stock’s ascent continue.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron’s Investor Circle. His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.