Lululemon Needs Overseas Growth, Says J.P. Morgan. Plus, Valero, Cleveland-Cliffs, and More Stocks.

These reports, excerpted and edited by Barron’s, were issued recently by investment and research firms. The reports are a sampling of analysts’ thinking; they should not be considered the views or recommendations of Barron’s. Some of the reports’ issuers have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or other services to the companies being analyzed.

AppLovin • APP-Nasdaq
Buy • $366.17 on July 22
by Benchmark
AppLovin will report second-quarter 2025 financial results on Aug. 6. Management will host a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. We expect upside to AppLovin’s second-quarter results, supported by ongoing momentum in its high-margin advertising segment and strong execution in the emerging web category.

However, we also anticipate increased scrutiny on third-quarter guidance, particularly with Unity’s recently launched artificial-intelligence-powered ad platform, Vector, potentially gaining attention and raising questions around competitive share dynamics.

We remain confident in AppLovin’s competitive moat, execution strength, and emerging opportunities like web advertising, which we believe will continue to drive meaningful growth into the second half of 2025 and beyond.

Price target: $525.

Cleveland-Cliffs • CLF-NYSE
Overweight • $10.66 on July 21
by KeyBanc Capital Markets
Following the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report, we are upgrading shares of Cleveland-Cliffs to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $14 price target. Our upgrade is driven by improved cost/efficiency performance and prospective share gains across Cleveland-Cliffs’ higher-margin auto platform in lieu of S-232 tariffs and onshoring.

We are also intrigued by potential changes in Canadian steel trade policy, which would boost Stelco Holdings’ earnings, plus a formalized sales process for noncore assets (including idled assets) to reduce leverage in the quarters ahead.

Lululemon Athletica • LULU-Nasdaq
Neutral • $223.21 on July 21
by J.P. Morgan
Lululemon Athletica remains underpenetrated internationally relative to peers, with a notable opportunity to scale brand awareness. Our work points to a normalizing pace of growth in China and product assortment challenges in the U.S. This has driven elevated markdowns and more moderate revenue growth for the business, with higher fixed-cost leverage hurdles across return on debt and selling, general, and administrative expenses further constraining multiyear margins.

We rate shares of Lululemon Neutral. We are establishing our December 2026 price target of $224 (versus $303 prior) based on about 15 times our fiscal-year 2027 earnings per share (in line with nondistressed retail peers).

Circle Internet Group • CRCL-NYSE
Sell • $216.10 on July 21
by Compass Point
After U.S. stablecoin legislation passed last week, we are downgrading Circle Internet Group to Sell from Neutral and reducing our price target to $130 (-$75). We still believe that the company’s USDC stablecoin can be an integral part of the financial system; however, we’re more cautious toward Circle Internet Group’s long-term economics than its $53 billion valuation implies.

In the coming months, we expect Circle Internet Group to expand its distribution network while sharing a greater percent of interest income. We also expect traditional banks and financial-technology companies to announce competing stablecoin products.

These second-half 2025 catalysts could force investors to recalibrate long-term Ebitda margin and market-share expectations while putting pressure on Circle Internet Group’s premium valuation.

Valero Energy • VLO-NYSE
Hold • $146.28 on July 21
by TD Cowen
We view Valero Energy as a well-positioned refiner, given its low operating cost structure and disciplined capital investment strategy, which should enable continued return of capital. However, the company appears fully valued, pricing in a relatively bullish refining outlook with limited underlying earnings growth. The ability to capture strong refining cracks has been a structural headwind due to weak petchems and tight crude quality differentials that could remain for a period of time. We value Valero Energy on a net present value of sustaining free cash flow with 2026 as a terminal, midcycle year.

Therefore, we are downgrading Valero Energy to Hold, though increasing our price target to $140.

The current valuation implies an historically strong refining outlook that we believe is difficult to justify, even accounting for improved capture rates. Moreover, we see the combination of typical seasonality and potential limited fall maintenance pressuring cracks in the coming months.

Fiserv • FI-NYSE
Buy • $165.46 on July 23
by BTIG
Fiserv lowered revenue guidance across the board. Merchant Solutions fiscal-year 2025 organic growth is now guided to the low end of the prior 12% to 15% outlook; the reduction is mainly from slower-than-expected rollouts of many new product initiatives. Financial Solutions fiscal-year 2025 organic growth is also pointed to the low end of the prior 6% to 8% outlook; the reduction was credited to a bank-tech sales cycle that hasn’t accelerated as management anticipated.

We are lowering our price target to $200 but maintaining our Buy rating.

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