Dow Jones Futures Fall As 2025's End Nears; Tesla, Nvidia In Focus

Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, heading into the final days of 2025. Tesla (TSLA) is in focus as 2026 approaches.

The stock market rally had a solid performance during Christmas week, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time intraday high Friday while the Dow Jones set a record close Wednesday.

Tesla stock fell slightly last week after hitting a record high, but was still in a buy zone. Shares were undercutting the entry early Monday. Elon Musk’s year-end deadline for unsupervised robotaxis and 2025 deliveries data both loom this week.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose strongly into a buy area on bullish AI chip news. GE Aerospace (GE) cleared an early entry and is now trading right at a buy point. Apple (AAPL) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) are flashing early buy signals in emerging consolidations.

GE stock and Google are on Leaderboard with Nvidia on the watchlist. Nvidia stock and Google are on SwingTrader. Google stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures were 0.1% below fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.12%.

Silver reversed lower after jumping to fresh highs. Gold and copper also fell solidly, while platinum and especially palladium tumbled after metals had surged in recent weeks.

Crude oil futures rose more than 2%. President Donald Trump said “thorny issues” remain for Russia-Ukraine peace deal after Sunday talks with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago and a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally had a solid week on the major indexes, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones right at highs. A number of leading stocks flashed buy signals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 1.2% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index gained 1.4%. The Nasdaq composite rallied 1.2%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 edged down 0.2%, retreating Friday but only to the 21-day line.

But overall breath has been decent. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) climbed 0.5%. The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) gained nearly 1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined two basis points to 4.13%.

U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $56.74 a barrel, slashing weekly gains on Friday.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) jumped 3% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) edged up 0.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) popped 2.7%, with Nvidia stock the No. 1 component.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) declined 0.75% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) inched up 0.2%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) advanced 2.5% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) nudged 0.2% higher and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) climbed 0.7%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 0.9%, with GE Aerospace stock the No. 1 holding.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) popped 1.4%.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock fell 1.25% to 475.19 last week, pulling back after hitting a record 498.83 on Monday. Shares were just holding a 474.07 cup-base buy point. Tesla stock has surged in recent months on self-driving buzz.

CEO Elon Musk in recent weeks has doubled down on predictions of unsupervised robotaxis in Austin, Texas, by year-end. Musk has made self-driving forecasts for “this year” or “next year” for the past decade, but he’s raised the stakes with such a near-term  promise.

A few brief videos appear to show Tesla vehicles without any occupants, though it’s unclear if they were truly unsupervised.

Meanwhile, Tesla will report Q4 and full-year deliveries for 2025. Both are expected to be significantly below a year earlier.

So there’s the potential for big TSLA moves up or down late next week.

Early Monday, shares fell slightly to just above 470.

Other Megacaps In In Buy Zones

Nvidia stock jumped 5.3% to 190.53 for the week, moving decisively above the 50-day line, offering an early entry. Investors also could use 196, the high from the Nov. 20 downside reversal day following earnings, as another alternative entry. The official consolidation buy point is 212.19, according to MarketSurge.

Nvidia rose on reports that it will soon be selling H200 AI chips in China. Also, the Dow tech giant made a big licensing-and-hire deal for AI chip startup Groq that’s technically not a takeover.

Google stock climbed 2.1% to 313.51, bouncing off the 21-day moving average and breaking a downtrend in a short consolidation. GOOGL stock could have a flat base in another week.

Apple stock edged down 0.1% to 273.40 last week bouncing off the 50-day moving average. Shares closed just below the 21-day moving average and right on a short downtrend. Investors could buy the Dow tech titan here or look for a clear move above the 21-day, which would offer an early entry. AAPL stock could have a flat base in another week with a 288.62 buy point, forged modestly above a long consolidation.

GE stock rallied 2.6% to 315.14 for the week, just below a 316.67 flat-base buy point. Shares cleared an early entry of 308.06 on Monday and it has been trading around the traditional buy point. GE is actionable now but investors could use a clear move over 316.67 as the trigger. While a relative minnow compared to Tesla, Google, Apple and Nvidia, GE Aerospace stock has a sizable market cap north of $330 billion.

Early Monday, Nvidia stock fell slightly while Google, Apple and GE lost a fraction.

What To Do Now

The stock market is now in the traditional Santa Claus rally period, which runs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, or Jan. 5, 2026 this time. Of course, this period doesn’t have to be positive.

Regardless of historic trends, there’s no doubt that the stock market is doing well, with the S&P 500 at record highs and plenty of leading stocks acting well. Investors should be significantly extended and could consider making some incremental new buys.

It’s definitely a time to be working on watchlists. It can also be a good time to review trades over the past year. What were your big winners and losers, and what were your bigger misses?

Also, early January can see some significant selling as investors sell stock for tax reasons after the new year.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on  Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson  for stock market updates and more.

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