Eli Lilly, IBD Stock Of The Day, Proves The Merit Of Its Weight-Loss Pill

Eli Lilly (LLY) is Thursday’s IBD Stock Of The Day after the company proved the merit of its weight-loss pill as a maintenance treatment. Shares are bouncing off their 21-day line, clearing a short-lived pause.

In a yearlong study, patients who switched to orforglipron from injectable drugs maintained most of the weight they initially lost from injectable drugs, Eli Lilly said in a news release.

The study is the first of its kind. Patients initially lost weight during 72 weeks of treatment with the highest doses of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy or Lilly’s Zepbound. Then, they switched to orforglipron for 52 weeks. Orforglipron delivered “superior weight management as an adjunct to a healthy diet and physical activity” compared with a placebo.

“We believe new maintenance data for LLY’s oral once-daily GLP-1 candidate orforglipron will help drive commercial success and upside to consensus expectations,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a report. He expects $2 billion in 2026 sales from orforglipron, reaching as high as $16 billion by 2028. The Street has less bullish forecasts at $1.4 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively.

Eli Lilly stock jumped 1.5%, closing at 1,056.88 on today’s stock market. Novo Nordisk, which is seeking approval for an oral version of Wegovy, saw shares edge down a fraction to 47.61.

In related news, Novo said it asked the Food and Drug Administration to approve CagriSema, its new weekly weight-loss shot. CagriSema mimics GLP-1 and amylin, two hormones tied to blood sugar and hunger control. Wegovy targets GLP-1 alone.

Weight-Loss Maintenance

In the Lilly study, patients who switched to orforglipron from Wegovy maintained all but 0.9 kilograms, or about 2 pounds, of the weight they lost on the injectable drug. Patients who first used Zepbound kept off all but 5 kilograms, or 11 pounds, of the weight they initially lost.

The results are based on patients who followed the study protocol exactly.

In both groups, patients lost roughly 40 to 55 pounds while taking the injectable drugs. By the end of 52 weeks of Lilly’s orforglipron, both groups had a matching average weight.

Maintaining weight loss is a significant challenge for patients coming off of injectable drugs. Kenneth Custer, executive vice president and president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, notes obesity is a chronic, progressive disease.

“If approved for the treatment of obesity, orforglipron could provide a convenient alternative for the millions of individuals living with obesity around the globe to continue their long-term health journey,” he said in a written statement.

Eli Lilly noted the overall safety of orforglipron was in line with previous studies. The most common side effects were gastrointestinal and generally mild to moderate. Between 4.8% to 7.2% of patients dropped out of the study due to side effects, compared to 6.3% to 7.6% of placebo recipients.

Lilly plans to unveil further data at a future conference. The company already has submitted a request for FDA approval of orforglipron and has a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher. The CNPV program drastically speeds the review time, cutting it down to one to two months from the typical 10 to 12 months.

Eli Lilly Stock Is Slightly Extended

Eli Lilly stock is trading just below its record high at 1,111.99, reached on Nov. 26. Shares broke out of a consolidation with a buy point at 972.53 on Nov. 10. The stock is now about 9% above that entry.

Novo shares, however, are trading below a ceiling at their 50-day moving average.

Lilly stock is on five IBD stock lists: IBD 50, Big Cap 20, Sector Leaders, Stock Spotlight and Leaderboard.

Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.

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